In order to understand the Coup in Sudan, you must understand that coups stem from regime vulnerability; the Sudan Coup is no different.
Rewind to 17 months ago to when the Sudanese people revolt against the reigning 30 year president Omar a-Bashir and won. The ICC accuses a-Bashir for genocide, crimes against humanity, and war crimes. The Sudanese were visibly unsatisfied with his intention to remain president for another term, he left power nearly the same way he gained power. The military ended up turning on his authority and aligning with the people. The goal of this revolution was to give power to the people, keep the governance out of military hands. Sudan had been in a transitional period with the civilian-military administration which was intended to be completely transitioned to the civilian administration in less than a month from now.
To no one’s surprise, the military authorities were dissatisfied with the regime change. Though hardly had any indication of intentions to arm a military coup. Shortly before the coup was underway, Jerffery Feltman, the United States diplomat to the Horn of Africa sat with both the Army chief Lt. Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and civilians prime minister Abdalla Hamdok discussing the 2-year shift in democracy. The New York Times recounted with Nureldin Satti, Sudan’s ambassador to the United States, when he said that “they lied to him. This is very serious, because when you lie to the U.S., you have to pay the consequences.”[i] Gen. al-Burhan took control, place the nation in a state of emergency and is now in works to govern Sudan with military administration. The Sovereign Council recently put in place is comprised of the country’s transitional government, not the civilian and military’s figures previously working on a democratic state. I think “working on” is a relative term in this sense, for the reason that to civilian and military figures have but heads for the duration of this transitional period. Abdalla Hamdok and citizens are back to square one.
What is under threat? For starters, lives of the Sudanese people. The people will continue to oppose this power grab; as of November 17th, Aljazeera reports that fatalities have raised to 39, following the protests across Khartoum and twin cities of Bahri and Omduraman starting on October 25th 2021.[ii] Last Wednesday protestors carried picture of people killed in protests and of Abdalla Hamdok, who was placed under house arrest, with the slogan “Legitimacy comes from the street, not from the cannons.” Secondly, the hope of democracy. Thousands of people rally for a new democratic state that ensures the human rights the Sudanese crave. Last Wednesday protestors carried picture of people killed The international consequences so far, have been limited punitive aid like $700 million in assistance from the United States,[iii] while global powers demand a civilian rule.
What now? The mostly likely event will be Gen. al-Burhan stepping down as a military leader to become civilian in order to remain in power. Time and time again this transition of roles has led to a “regime” change. I do not believe the Sudanese nor international players will be satisfied with this adjustment resulting in a drawn-out revolution. Fortunately, seen in many African countries, the fortitude and will power of the people has resulted in change. Sudan is no different by having pro-democracy groups promise to continue protesting until the return of the Sovereign Council.
[i] Dahir, Abdi Latif, and Declan Walsh. “'They Lied.' inside the Frantic Days Leading to Sudan's Coup.” The New York Times, The New York Times, 29 Oct. 2021, https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/29/world/africa/sudan-coup-general.html.
[ii] Al Jazeera. “Several Anti-Coup Protesters Killed in Sudan as Thousands Rally.” News | Al Jazeera, Al Jazeera, 18 Nov. 2021, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/11/17/sudan-authorities-close-bridges-ahead-of-mass-anti-coup-protests.
[iii] Jakes, Lara. “The U.S. Cut off Aid to the Sudanese Government after the Coup.” The New York Times, The New York Times, 25 Oct. 2021, https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/25/world/africa/us-aid-frozen-sudan.html.